Aviation fuel demand is expected to recover post-COVID but will not return to the era of cheap kerosene growth due to shifts in the market towards sustainable aviation fuels and electrification for shorter routes. The industry will experience stratification, with some routes electrifying and others remaining reliant on more expensive liquid fuels, leading to a change in the fuel-service mix rather than a complete collapse of aviation demand.
For a professional in greentech and renewable energy, the key takeaway is the strategic opportunity in electric regional aviation. With shorter routes under 1,000 kilometers being viable for electrification, there is potential to invest and innovate in electric aircraft, airport charging infrastructure, and the associated supply chains. This segment can reshape regional mobility by reducing operational costs and expanding service options, making it a compelling area for sustainable investment and development.